Knowledge management in turbulent times: time-based scenario analysis of vaccinations against COVID-19

In this real impact research article, the authors investigate the impact of timely and delayed vaccination of population against COVID-19 on Italian GDP. The authors recognize the relevant role of “time” on the Italian economy recovery at large. Through the lens of knowledge management, the paper assumes that collective knowledge and empirical information allow decision makers to manage the potential effects of economic forecasting. Moreover, in a turbulent time, scientific data and knowledge are often used to implement original simulation-based projections for the next future. Specifically, the paper applies an epidemiological model by adopting scenario-based projections for Italian GDP in 2021 and 2022. In this vein, the authors find that the growth of the GDP is time-dependent on the rollout of the national vaccination plan. Finally, the article provides implications for policymakers, practitioners and managers for strategizing about actions to assets to fight the COVID-19 crisis and to trigger the national recovery.